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Overall, global prospects are improving. The world economy is slowly turning the corner, although growth remains too weak and too unbalanced. In January, we projected global activity to strengthen from 3 percent in 2013 to about 3.7 percent in 2014—largely driven by improvements in the advanced economies.
总体而言,全球前景在改善。世界经济正在慢慢好转,但增长还是太弱、太不均衡。我们在今年 1 月预测全球经济活动将从 2013 年的 3%加快到 2014 年的 3.7%,这主要将得益于先进经济体的经济好转。
Activity in emerging market and developing economies picked up slightly in the latter part of 2013, driven by stronger external demand from advanced economies. Although tighter external financial conditions will be a drag on domestic demand, emerging Asia will continue to be a bright spot, posting the highest growth rate of about 6.7 percent this year and next. China will continue to be a key driver of this momentum, albeit with lower but more sustainable growth rates.
2013年最后几个月,由于来自先进经济体的外部需求增强,新兴市场和发展中经济体的经济活动略有回升。尽管外部融资状况的收紧将抑制国内需求,但新兴亚洲仍将是一个增长亮点,今明两年的增长率将在 6.7%左右,是全球最高的。中国仍将是这一强劲增长势头的主要驱动力量,尽管增速将有所放缓,但将更可持续。
Among the advanced economies, growth will be strongest in the United States, supported by robust private demand. Even so, it will be critical to continue to manage carefully the withdrawal of monetary support and to address medium-term fiscal uncertainty.
在先进经济体中,美国的增长将是最强的,这得益于其强劲的私人需求。即使如此,美国必须继续谨慎地管理其货币支持措施的退出过程,并解决中期财政不确定性。
In the euro area, a modest recovery is taking hold—stronger in the core countries, but weaker in the South. Progress on banking union in recent days is encouraging and we look forward to further implementation –which is essential for a durable recovery.
欧元区的温和复苏正在巩固——核心国家的复苏较强,但南方国家的复苏较弱。最近几天在银行业联盟方面取得了令人鼓舞的进展,我们期待着进一步的实施。这对于确保持久复苏至关重要。
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